Anchorage Northern Lights Forecast

Aurora and Weather Forecasts

Though Fairbanks is often assumed to be the only northern lights (aurora borealis) viewing location in Alaska, there are some distinct advantages to chasing the lights in and around Anchorage and Southcentral Alaska. This Anchorage northern lights forecast page is designed to provide you information to aid in your search for a northern lights experience during a visit in the Anchorage area. Join us on our Anchorage Aurora Quest – Anchorage Northern Lights Tour for a guided experience, showing you the best viewing locations and providing instruction on how to photograph this amazing phenomena.

ANCHORAGE WEATHER

3-Day Aurora Forecast

The aurora forecast is updated for March 21. Keep an eye out for our daily weather forecast update below and tour status as noted on the Anchorage Aurora Quest page. The Kp estimate is for the maximum level forecasted for the time between 10:00 p.m. and 4:00 a.m. Alaska time.

TUE MAR 21 – Planetary K-Index [predicted]: Kp 1.33

WED MAR 22 – Planetary K-Index [predicted]: Kp 2.00

THU MAR 23 – Planetary K-Index [predicted]: Kp 4.33

Additional Information Affecting Aurora Viewing

Moon

The moon will set at 8:38 p.m. as a 0.31% waxing crescent and be down all night. The moon will not interfere with viewing a quiet aurora.

Twilight

Astronomical twilight will end at 10:51 p.m. and resume at 5:20 a.m. (Mar. 22). Twilight will not impair aurora viewing.

Solar Winds

A combination of positive polarity Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) influence and diminishing effects from the 17 Mar Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) transiting nearby are likely to keep the solar wind environment slightly enhanced for the remainder of 21 Mar. Nominal conditions are expected to return by 22 Mar, with possible enhancements on 23 Mar if the CMEs previously mentioned impact the Earth.

Geomagnetic Field

Active levels could still be reached on 21 Mar due to lingering effects from the 17 Mar CME and possible influence from a weak, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to return by 22 Mar, with possible unsettled to active conditions by 23 Mar if the CME from the 20th impacts the Earth.

Planetary K-Index

provides an estimate as to how wide the auroral oval may extend. It does not indicate whether the aurora borealis will appear. The most important factors for aurora viewing are the solar winds and geomagnetic field – so note the information above on those. The Planetary K-Index is measured on a scale of 0-9. Anchorage is within the Kp3 zone (aurora visible overhead), but auroras are often seen here on the horizon as low as Kp1 (except for the early and late season, where a higher Kp is needed due to bright twilight). A fairly accurate Kp index can be determined up to 3-days in advance. For the Kp index indicated in the Anchorage northern lights forecast, that is the maximum Kp predicted during the prime aurora viewing time in the Anchorage area (generally between 9:00 p.m. and 4:00 a.m.). We do not provide the Kp level for a forecast period outside of nominal viewing times (i.e., local daytime).

Tonight's Weather Forecasts

The forecast is updated for the night of March 21.

Anchorage

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Light northeast wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Estimated cloud cover is 99% (10:00 p.m.) to 99% (4:00 a.m.).

Girdwood

A chance of snow showers before 7pm, then snow, mainly after 10pm. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 30. Light east wind becoming southeast 25 to 30 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Conditions Statement for the area. Estimated cloud cover is 98% (10:00 p.m.) to 99% (4:00 a.m.).

Butte/Knik River

A slight chance of snow between 1am and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Estimated cloud cover is 99% (10:00 p.m.) to 99% (4:00 a.m.).

Palmer

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Estimated cloud cover is 99% (10:00 p.m.) to 99% (4:00 a.m.).

Sutton

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Estimated cloud cover is 99% (10:00 p.m.) to 99% (4:00 a.m.).

Chickaloon

A slight chance of snow between 10pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Estimated cloud cover is 97% (10:00 p.m.) to 100% (4:00 a.m.).

Glacier View

A slight chance of snow showers before 10pm, then a slight chance of snow between 10pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Estimated cloud cover at Lion Head is 99% (10:00 p.m.) to 99% (4:00 a.m.).

Wasilla

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Estimated cloud cover is 96% (10:00 p.m.) to 99% (4:00 a.m.).

Willow

Cloudy, with a low around 19. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Estimated cloud cover is 96% (10:00 p.m.) to 85% (4:00 a.m.).

Talkeetna

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Estimated cloud cover is 88% (10:00 p.m.) to 85% (4:00 a.m.).

Latest Satellite Infrared Image of Alaska Cloud Cover

Current Aurora Ovation

Hemispheric Power is a measure of auroral activity that helps determine how bright and active auroras might be. It measures the rate of deposition of charged particles (mainly electrons and protons) into the atmosphere, where they collide with upper atmosphere particles and eventually stop. This process transfers their kinetic energy to the upper atmosphere. The higher the number, the more charged particles are depositing in the upper atmosphere. It’s measured on a scale of 5-150 GW [Gigawatts]. A power level of 20 or more is usually adequate to produce auroras visible to the naked eye. Hemispheric Power fluctuates and is a short range forecast that can be determined only up to around 30-90 minutes in advance with relative accuracy.

Comparing Anchorage and Fairbanks

Both cities fall within the auroral zone, which in Alaska is around 60°- 70° N. At this latitude, communities positioned beneath the band will see northern lights almost every dark, clear night. That said, the following information may help you decide which location suits your aurora quest best.

Average January Temperature

Anchorage: 17.1°F [-8°C]
Fairbanks: -7.9°F [-22°C]

Median Cloud Cover

Anchorage: 93% [clearest in March]
Fairbanks: 73-92% [clearest in February]

Landscape Features to Include in Aurora Photos

Anchorage: mountains, boreal and temperate rainforest, coastal areas, rivers and lakes with areas of open water for beautiful reflections throughout the season.
Fairbanks: hills, boreal forest, [open lakes and rivers early in the season].

Aurora Season

Anchorage: Aug 7 – May 7
Fairbanks: Aug 21 – Apr 21

Unique Advantages

Anchorage: Auroras often tend to be brighter and more active farther equatorward, relatively warmer temperatures, a variety of landscape features to include in aurora photography, longer aurora viewing season.
Fairbanks: More clear sky nights, more chance to see aurora during low activity periods.

Recommendations

Aurora chasers with a night or more in the Anchorage area have little to lose and much to gain by reserving an aurora tour here. Even those heading to or returning from Fairbanks will increase chances of seeing the northern lights, and enjoy the differing experience of each location. So if time allows, include both cities in your winter travel plan!